With the renewal of full-scale Israeli operations in Gaza, a situation which seemed to have reached a bloody quagmire is now escalating unpredictably. The number of Palestinian casualties is rapidly increasing, with 144 killed on the first day of the offensive, while the blockade of food supplies that began back in March has put many on the brink of starvation. Though the blockade was lifted this week, the amounts of food and aid being delivered are clearly insufficient to stem the crisis. The UK has joined France and Canada in threatening sanctions on Israel if it continues its present operation.

On top of this, the United States is proving an increasingly unreliable ally, with Donald Trump showing Benjamin Netanyahu that he is just as mercenary and unpredictable when dealing with Israel as with any other country. In Israel, few have any hope that this latest round of hostilities will be more conclusive than the previous 18 months of fighting.

The latest reports in the Israeli media suggest that Netanyahu is hoping for the Hamas leadership to leave the Gaza Strip, and that the organisation has been dismantled so that he can declare victory. However, this is clearly never going to happen.

Hamas is refusing to give even the slightesst impression that it has been defeated in exchange for ending the war. For its leaders, maintaining the semblance of control is even more important in light of the anti-Hamas protests that have broken out in Gaza over the past few months.

Leftist Israeli politician Yair Golan has portrayed the fresh invasion of Gaza as “a Netanyahu-Smotrich operation to manipulate public consciousness in Israel in order to survive another Knesset session”. Given that large numbers of Israelis are against the continuation of the war, and up to half of reservists are refusing to report for duty, many share Golan’s opinion that the conflict is now being continued purely for political reasons.

Meanwhile, Bibi is managing to alienate even his dwindling band of supporters, on whom he has become increasingly reliant in recent months. Many Right-wingers are angry at the lifting of the blockade, and view it as giving up what they consider important leverage without any return of the hostages.

The only people happy with the latest escalation are members of the far-Right religious settler movement, who imagine that they are on the cusp of achieving more than they could have dreamed of 18 months ago. That is, the re-establishment of settlements in Gaza, or even — encouraged by Trump — the permanent removal of Palestinians from the Strip. More moderate conservatives, however, see this as naive and believe that Netanyahu is being manipulated by the US President.

But even their support is conditional. Speaking of the decision to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, Zvi Sukkot of the Religious Zionism party warned yesterday that if the government was to stop striving for “a crushing victory”, his party would withdraw from the coalition.

And so the war goes on, with casualties mounting and no end in sight for the people of Gaza. Bibi clearly feels that, as long as he keeps the war running, he is secure in his position. But as the events of 7 October 2023 showed, attempts to prolong an impossible situation can often lead to catastrophe.

---

David Swift is a historian and author. His next book, Scouse Republic, is available to pre-order now.

davidswift87

---