Donald Tusk’s candidate won the first round of Poland’s presidential election last night — but the Prime Minister still likely went to bed sweating. According to exit polls, Tusk’s ally, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, has eked out a win in the first round of the country’s presidential election with 30.8% of the vote. He will face off in the next round against Karol Nawrocki from the former ruling party, Law and Justice (PiS), who came second.

On the surface, this may seem like good news for Tusk and his coalition: despite forming a government back in 2023, their agenda has since been repeatedly stymied by PiS-aligned President Andrzej Duda, who under Poland’s semi-presidential system was able to veto Tusk’s efforts to turn back the clock on eight years of PiS’s Catholic-conservative rule. With Trzaskowski in power, Tusk and his allies would finally be able to pass the institutional reforms and judicial changes that the EU had mandated for years — although reforming Poland’s infamously restrictive abortion laws, a longtime liberal dream, may continue to evade them.

But, despite appearances, last night’s result represents a political earthquake not only for Tusk and his party but for PiS as well. Not only did Trzaskowki edge out Nawrocki by a mere 1.7%, but — in stark contrast to pre-election polling — the candidate from the far-Right Confederation Party won over 15%, more than doubling the party’s share of the vote from both the previous presidential and parliamentary elections. Fourth place, in turn, went to Grzegorz Braun, who has spoken openly in support of Russia and labelled Jews “the enemies of Poland”. If supporters of these candidates flock to Nawrocki in the second round, he will likely carry the day.

Of course, years of infighting on the Polish Right mean that many of PiS’s nationalist opponents may well stay home for the run-off on 1 June. But, whatever happens, last night’s result served as undeniable proof that the battle for the future of Polish politics will be fought on Right-wing turf, and that PiS is losing its grip on conservatism in the country.

Poland’s attitude toward Russia and its war in Ukraine will likely remain unchanged regardless of who is in charge. But even if Trzaskowski unifies the centre and the Left to win the second round, this election will have left its mark on Tusk’s party, which will likely only double down on the Rightward turn it has taken over the last year. For Europe, this means an increasingly nationalist Poland which, while squarely situated within the EU’s top brass, will drive the conversation in the bloc not from the traditional centre but from the Right.

Despite being painted historically as an urban progressive, Trzaskowski’s campaign was hardly centred around liberal values. In response to rising energy on the Right, he criticised certain programmes for Ukrainian refugees in Poland, emphasised his security credentials, and played down his support for LGBT rights in debates. He condemned the EU migration pact, supported Tusk’s move to suspend asylum rights along Poland’s border with Belarus, and even hinted at closing the border with Germany to keep refugees out.

Transformations like these are here to stay. With parliamentary elections in 2027, Trzaskowski and Tusk will have little room to retreat from their new embrace of Poland First-style rhetoric. A win for Nawrocki, meanwhile, would do little in the immediate term other than hamper Tusk’s agenda for the next two years. But with Confederation hot on his tail, PiS would have no choice but to scramble to save whatever it can of its slice of Poland’s political pie.

What happens in the near future will depend on how much Tusk can enact his agenda and pull Poland back from the brink of a populist takeover of its institutions. But what does not appear up for debate is the country’s long-term direction, which will be dictated in large part by increasingly vocal nativists. Tusk and Trzaskowski understand this well, and will prepare accordingly — if begrudgingly — for the second round.

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Michal Kranz is a freelance journalist reporting on politics, society and defence in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. He runs The Eastern Flank, a Substack newsletter focused on Eastern European geopolitics.

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