February 3, 2025 - 6:00pm
That normally polite Canadians are now booing the American national anthem at National Hockey League games should concern the Trump administration. In the aftermath of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, popular consent for military action is of paramount importance. That bears note in light of the growing threat of a US-China war.
Donald Trump argues that his 25% tariffs on Canadian goods will force America’s neighbour to strengthen security along the border. Whether Canada chooses to do this or not, these tariffs will manifestly harm US efforts to garner allied support against China, as expectation builds within the American military and intelligence community that Beijing will blockade or invade Taiwan by 2030.
While the Canadian navy and air forces are small, at the margins they could complement any US war effort alongside American special forces. Canada has made increasing China-focused Pacific deployments in recent years, while its four quiet attack submarines could help their US counterparts cause havoc for Chinese forces in and around the Taiwan Strait. Its Halifax-class frigates could also provide a cordon defence of US bases on the Japanese island of Okinawa.
Canada could ramp up security along its mostly porous US border, potentially with military deployments. It’s also true that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has utterly neglected the 2014 pledge made by all other Nato members to increase defence spending towards 2% of GDP. Last year, Canada spent less than 1.37% of GDP on defence, and the country has made a wilful decision to rely on the US military, especially the Air Force, to cover its defensive needs.
Since taking power in 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping has worked diligently to weaken the US-led alliance structure by financially drawing countries out of Washington’s orbit. Xi’s success is evidenced by Israel’s sharing of highly sensitive military technologies with Beijing, France’s cooperation on high-tech research, and the German and Spanish obstruction of transatlantic cooperation against China. Only a fool would see splashy arrangements such as the AUKUS submarine accord and decide that all is well.
In the UK, the Labour government has adopted an approach of conciliation in pursuit of increased Chinese investment. And Viktor Orbán has somehow retained Trump’s close favour even as he has brought Hungary closer to the Chinese Communist Party. But while Canada has accepted excess Chinese espionage campaigns against its parliamentarians, it has also joined other US efforts to counter Beijing. This was most notable in Canada’s sanctioning of various Communist Party officials and its detention of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou at America’s request. China has reacted furiously to these detentions, including with trade sanctions.
To be sure, Trump’s tariffs may earn greater Canadian border security cooperation. Perhaps his warning shots will also encourage Panama to reduce China’s influence over the Panama Canal, or push America’s European allies to increase defence spending. Nevertheless, these tariffs will certainly not harden the resolve of democratic governments or their populations to support America at the risk of their citizens’ lives in a brutal war on the other side of the world.
A failure of US allies to support a China war effort may well jeopardise America’s continued support for Nato, an outcome which only favours Beijing and Moscow. Yet even if Trump won’t fight to keep Taiwan and the South China Sea from Chinese conquest, it is surely in his best interests to deter those outcomes as far as is peacefully possible. Putting tariffs on allies won’t help America win the defining geopolitical struggle of the 21st century.
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