After two days of talks, the US and China have reportedly reached a deal to substantially lower tariffs for the next 90 days. Beijing will reduce duties on US imports from 125% to 10%, while tariffs on Chinese goods entering America will be cut from 145% to 30%.

Any deal to reduce tariffs on Chinese imports will naturally please American consumers, not to mention businesses fearful of sharp price increases and empty store shelves. But this deal will be equally important for the opportunity it creates to stabilise the security relationship between the two rival powers. With tensions rising in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and waters around Japan, the Trump administration should use the opening created by the successful Geneva summit to press forward on what might be its most important task: preventing a war between the United States and China.

When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, those hoping for an improvement in Sino-American security ties were optimistic. Trump had a good rapport with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his first term, and seemed interested in forging mutually beneficial deals with Beijing in his second term — even if they broke from US foreign policy convention. The American President billed himself as a “peacemaker” and promised to keep the country out of foreign wars, including in Asia. Though asked multiple times, Trump refused to follow former president Joe Biden in committing US military support to Taiwan if the island were attacked by China.

The “Liberation Day” tariffs placed on China quickly dampened this optimism. As the two countries spiralled into tit-for-tat tariff increases, the appetite for bilateral discussion around regional security concerns shrank. The security implications of the trade war were severe, despite being overshadowed by the economic fallout. Most importantly, worsening economic relations between the rival nations risked spillover into the military domain, while simultaneously cutting off the communication channels that might prevent a regional crisis from escalating into a full-blown conflict.

Military tensions in the Indo-Pacific have risen in recent months, not only across the Taiwan Strait, but also in the South China Sea where China and the Philippines continue to clash, and near Japan where Chinese aircraft have increased incursions into Japan’s airspace. These types of activities create liabilities for the United States not only because Japan and the Philippines are America’s treaty allies, but also because US military forces are stationed in large numbers across the region, where they would be exposed and vulnerable in the event of a war.

The Trump administration can ill afford to have its economic agenda derail its top security priorities, especially in the case of avoiding a war with China. The consequences of such a conflict would be devastating, especially if nuclear weapons were involved. Trump has an opportunity to reset the Sino-American security relationship and avoid this catastrophic outcome, but only through intensive diplomacy.

For example, he and Xi might work toward a fourth round of assurances over Taiwan which would remove the island as a flashpoint in the bilateral relationship. Alternatively, the two sides might agree to mutual de-escalation in the South China Sea by exchanging the removal of US long-range missile platforms from the Philippines for a reduction in Chinese grey-zone activities directed at American allies. None of these moves — or others that might be contemplated — will be possible, however, while the ongoing trade war continues to make bilateral compromise in other domains politically impossible.

As Trump and his advisors push ahead with resolving trade disagreements between the US and China, they should remember that the consequences of a failed deal will go far beyond additional economic turmoil. More concerning is the possible further degradation of the security relationship between the two countries, and the heightened risk of conflict that is sure to follow.

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Jennifer Kavanagh is a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities.

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