Yesterday Donald Trump claimed that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has been “playing with fire” — and that had it not been for the US President, “lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia.” This came shortly after the US leader declared that Putin had “gone absolutely crazy” and had been “needlessly killing a lot of people”.

While Trump’s remarks could have come at any moment over the past three years, on this occasion they were provoked by Moscow’s drone and missile strikes over the weekend — the largest aerial attack since the invasion began. However, there had been signs earlier of Trump’s frustration with Putin. This month, the US President confided to donors that his Russian counterpart still wants “the whole” of Ukraine and privately told aides of his shock that Moscow had bombed areas with children.

This weekend’s assault demonstrates the limits of the Kremlin’s strategy of signalling an interest in peace while waging war. It risks puncturing Trump’s inflated ego, showing that Putin is beyond his control and cannot be lured to the negotiating table. It exposes the hollowness of Trump’s affirmations that Russia seeks peace, allowing European leaders to crow that the US is finally waking up to reality. And it stands in the way of the US President’s much-desired Nobel Peace Prize.

Then there are the domestic considerations, with Russia hawks in Trump’s own party trying to force his hand. As such, the US President is reportedly considering stronger measures as soon as this week, yet remains undecided and could still walk away from peace talks. Indeed, his downbeat psychological assessment of the Russian leader could be empty rhetoric. Trump is famously mercurial, with a track record of threatening sanctions on Russia, only to do nothing once the headlines have faded away.

Yet, after the past few days, there has potentially been a real alteration in Trump’s thinking. US officials have revealed that he had previously refrained from targeting Putin because of his personal disdain for Zelensky, his belief that sanctions would harm bilateral trade without deterring Russia’s military, and his conviction that he understood Putin well enough to persuade him to end the war.

Ukrainian officials suggested that this weekend’s attacks could be the opening phase of a new ground offensive, a prospect that left Trump “surprised”. He will need to get over that shock in time to adopt a more consistent strategy once broader operations are underway. He has already prepared “carrot and stick” measures such as the relaxation of sanctions, counterbalanced by the threat of more aid to Ukraine and tough measures on Russia’s central bank, Moscow’s sovereign assets and countries receiving Putin’s oil.

Increased weaponry to Ukraine would not only push Putin to the negotiating table but allow a more confident Zelensky to sit at it. Secondary sanctions on Russia’s energy sales would have the best chance of grinding its war machine to a halt and reportedly have European support, yet could send shockwaves through the global economy. That said, Trump’s favourite word is “tariff” — and the world has already seen his willingness to adopt unorthodox economic measures.

Putin’s strategy of portraying himself as a peacemaker seems to have protected him from the worst of Trump’s ire until now. Yet this weekend’s assault was “playing with fire” — and Putin may get burned.

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Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.

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