Keir Starmer is talking tough on immigration. After the Reform UK surge in the local elections earlier this month, the Government is pushing forward with a new White Paper which looks to stare down the electoral threat from the Right. Tightening regulations will come with other costs, however, and this could prove challenging for the Labour Party and its electoral coalition.

The plans fall short of an overall cap on immigration but do much to tighten the current rules. Special social care visas, a major route for post-Brexit migration, will be scrapped. Student visas will be made stricter and shorter. It will become much harder for migrants to achieve British citizenship, with the time requirement doubled from five to 10 years. Skilled worker visas will also become more stringent. It is a catalogue of moves designed to cut migration down from its peak.

Yet questions remain, particularly those concerning implementation and effectiveness. The public remains wary of rule changes which promise to cut immigration but fail to follow through. The Tories’ post-Brexit changes were themselves intended to reduce dependency on foreign workers, but instead saw migrant worker numbers rise steeply. There is an understandable scepticism among the electorate about how far these new measures will make a difference.

If they do work, it may still not be a slam dunk for Starmer. In introducing these rules, the Prime Minister today railed against a culture of relying on cheap labour. Part of the problem with Britain’s migration system is that both private businesses and public-sector bodies have become used to an abundant labour supply. Changing this will have significant short-term impacts.

In health and social care, there is likely to be pressure on wages as providers have to compete to attract workers. This either means a greater burden falling on taxpayers or the Government failing to attract the workers it needs. There’s a real chance it flows through to missed targets for the NHS and for social care, and worse provision for those who use these services. In the private sector, there will be disruption as businesses adjust to the new rules and restrictions. Some will struggle to maintain their margins without immigrant workers.

All of this could be painful, especially in areas where public services are already stretched and the private sector is struggling. Labour could well carry the blame, even if it tries to win credit for immigration going down. While the last government suffered because of its inability to curb immigration, voters also turned against its management of public services. If Labour is forced to either raise taxes or deliver worse services, it is likely to pay a similar cost.

Beyond this, Starmer will have issues with Labour’s significant Left-wing, pro-immigration bloc. The Government has less room for manoeuvre on the problem than the Right-wing parties, and this new tone could push more voters towards insurgent forces on the Left, such as the Greens or newly emerging independent movements. This could be particularly costly in cities, where far more voters are themselves immigrants, and where attitudes about the issue are more relaxed.

The PM is making a big bid for popularity with this White Paper. He is looking to engage with public anger around immigration and stave off Labour bleeding votes to Reform. It may not be as easy as he thinks, though. These new rules might not convince the public, or they may trigger difficult choices on taxation and spending. Either way, the Government could receive the blame while also alienating a key section of its more liberal support. What Labour has adopted to fight Reform could instead empower Nigel Farage’s party even more.

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John Oxley is a corporate strategist and political commentator. His Substack is Joxley Writes.

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