Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth recently gave a speech at the Shangri-La forum in Singapore. The speech was intended to reassure America’s allies that Washington is working to establish credible deterrence in East Asia. Yet the address is also likely to leave the region in an even more combustible state than it was before.

This is because Hegseth seems to have underestimated how rapidly the military balance has shifted in China’s favour. Even more importantly, he failed to seek any serious common ground with Beijing or acknowledge US interests as they relate to Taiwan.

That lack of diplomatic nuance was compounded by the way Hegseth framed America’s broader strategic priorities. In making the case for Donald Trump’s America First foreign policy, he stressed that the Western Hemisphere—not Asia—was the true focus, pointing to the Panama Canal as a key battleground for US-Chinese rivalry. Meanwhile, US allies in Asia received little encouragement; Hegseth offered them “tough love,” contrasting their efforts unfavourably with those of a “model ally” like Poland. Indeed, Japan’s defence spending remains under 2% of GDP and may not reach even that target until 2027.

Hegseth seemed to espouse a growing realism at the Pentagon, exemplified by his rather strict adherence to America’s traditional policy of “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan. Unlike President Joe Biden’s multiple and emphatic statements that Taiwan would be defended by the US, Hegseth only noted that his role was to “maintain the decision-space” for his commander-in-chief. His frequent use of the word “partner” could suggest an understanding that the island is actually not a treaty ally.

The Taiwan issue has become extremely volatile in recent years. Not only has hostility between Beijing and Taipei reached a fever pitch, but serious Washington strategists are now urging the Pentagon to prepare for a limited nuclear war with China over Taiwan. Thankfully, Hegseth did not underline such preparations in Singapore, but he was not wrong in suggesting that the threat to Taiwan could very well be imminent and grave.

The problems, however, came with Hegseth’s proposed solutions to the conflict, which may place both the United States and its allies in acute danger. To give one example, Hegseth explained that unmanned systems would be key to deterring China from crossing the Taiwan Strait. But this is a classic case of “drone delusion” that comes from an overly-simplistic reading of the Russia-Ukraine War. Not only is China already a drone superpower whose systems are in high demand by both sides of the Ukraine conflict, but its drone production resources far exceed those of Russia.

Hegseth also emphasised that US forces in the Philippines are now exercising at scale off Batanes Island in the Luzon Strait. While he said the US would not behave recklessly in the Asia-Pacific, this unprecedented lean toward Taiwan constitutes a fateful error. By linking the volatile South China Sea issue to the Taiwan question, the Pentagon may well be stepping onto a tripwire. It is hardly coincidental that Beijing recently hinted that the Philippines, like Ukraine, could end up devastated by a great power rivalry turning hot.

What was missing from Hegseth’s Singapore speech was some level of reassurance that Washington will adhere to the One China policy on Taiwan. Nor does the Pentagon appear to grasp that an incautious leap into a regional arms race could trigger yet another unnecessary war by compromising Chinese national security through the so-called “security dilemma.” According to this most basic principle of international relations theory, moves to enhance one state’s defences can prompt an unwanted escalation spiral by inadvertently decreasing another state’s security.

In his address, Hegseth noted that the US has foolishly fought many recent wars where its “core” or vital interests were not at stake. He should acknowledge that most Americans, including leading strategists and even his own key deputy, now recognise that Taiwan also does not constitute a vital national interest —lest America stumble into a war it does not need to fight.