Back in the Eighties, the Social Democratic Party set out to “break the mould of British politics”. It failed — but Nigel Farage may be about to do what David Owen and Shirley Williams could not four decades earlier.

The extraordinary thing about Reform UK’s polling is not just the headline numbers, but the sheer breadth of its support. At the local elections earlier this month, the party swept to power in Tory Kent and Labour Durham. Now, a new poll puts it ahead of the Conservatives in London too.

Historically, British parties which have broken through under the first-past-the-post system have one thing in common: a concentrated base of support. The most obvious recent example is the Scottish National Party, which in 2015 managed to secure all but three seats in Scotland by consolidating the 2014 independence vote. Prior to that, the Liberal Democrats reached their apogee in the 2000s by being a major party in the so-called “Celtic Fringe”. Even the Labour Party, a century ago, initially capitalised on the concentrated support of the newly-enfranchised working class.

Those parties that fail, on the other hand, tend to have broader but shallower appeal. The SDP polled very well at points in the Eighties, but could never fulfil its potential outside of by-elections. The same was true of Ukip, which only ever returned one MP at a general election — although it came second in 120 in 2015.

Britain’s political map has become increasingly fragmented in recent years. Compared to the middle of the 20th century, there are now far more regionally-specific trends — and even, as in Scotland, parties. Reform is defying this pattern, however. Based on its second preferences two weeks ago, there seem to be few areas of England where Farage’s party isn’t competitive. It is polling very well in Wales, and may even win next year’s Senedd elections. Reform looks set to break into the Scottish Parliament, too. And now there’s London.

As in many places, Farage may simply be capitalising on Tory weakness. An under-remarked story since the 2010 election has been the slow collapse of the Conservative position in the capital. In seats which David Cameron won or came close to winning in 2010, the party is now facing five-figure Labour or Liberal Democrat majorities. Some on both the Left and Right have argued that this simply reflects a “cultural” voting tendency by the most diverse and metropolitan part of the country. But it would be extremely unusual for London not to have a potentially substantial Right-wing electorate, given its concentration of high-earners, as well as socially-conservative religious voters.

It is also where certain immigration pressures, especially on housing, are most acute. A capital where taxpayers must cough up sky-high rents while large tracts of the city centre are dedicated to social housing should be rich pickings for a party of the Right, as should the Metropolitan Police’s woeful record on tackling phone snatching and other acquisitive crime.

But the Conservatives have for years been gradually retreating to the suburban ring of Outer London, and have been chronically incapable of wooing voters in the rest of the city. If Reform is capable of this — as it is in the Welsh Valleys, another Tory no-go zone — then London’s political map could be yet another political map Farage is about to rip up.

Yet there is no comfort in these numbers for Labour, either. It is a rare party which can maintain its vitality during a long period of one-party dominance, and Labour is not one of them. Keir Starmer’s party has become complacent in the capital, seen most obviously when Angela Rayner slashed the city’s housing targets, despite runaway rents and house prices, to spare Mayor Sadiq Khan’s blushes.

Now, Labour’s support has fallen even more sharply than the Conservatives’. This is a first sign, perhaps, that Reform really is breaking through in areas where there has not been a viable Right-wing challenger for a very long time.

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Henry Hill is Deputy Editor of ConservativeHome.

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