On Sunday, as Moscow and Kyiv prepared for a second round of meetings in Istanbul, Ukraine used a barrage of drones to target Russia’s fleet of strategic bombers at their home bases deep inside Russian territory. The operation, planned for over a year, is Kyiv’s latest high-risk attempt to shift the trajectory of a war that is increasingly moving in Moscow’s favour. But while it appears spectacular at first glance, the strike will not help Ukraine’s battlefield position or improve its prospects in its three-year war against Russia. Instead, it is likely to hurt Ukraine strategically and operationally, hardening Russian resolve, increasing the risk of escalation, and placing remaining military support from the Trump administration under threat.

Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb” carried a high shock value, not only for its creativity but also for the targets chosen and the resulting visuals of Russian aircraft aflame. Ukrainian leaders were quick to celebrate. Volodymyr Zelensky called it a “brilliant result”, proclaiming that “we are doing everything to make Russia feel the need to end this war.”

Any Ukrainian victory will be Pyrrhic, however. The loss of some of its strategic long-range bombers, if confirmed, would undoubtedly be a blow to Russia’s military force and will be especially concerning to Moscow given the role the aircraft play in the country’s nuclear deterrent. But the costs imposed by Ukraine’s attack will not prevent Russia from continuing its war of attrition on Ukraine’s eastern front, or force it to back off its campaign of drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.

Even in the attack’s aftermath, Russia has a large and capable air force ready to support the war in Ukraine. Just as importantly, the Kremlin’s military advantage will be unaffected by the latest strike. Russia’s defence production will proceed unabated, and Moscow will continue to exploit Ukraine’s shortages of manpower and weapons to take additional ground in Ukraine’s eastern regions, whittling away Kyiv’s remaining sovereign territory.

Ukraine’s attack will also do little to convince Moscow that it is time to stop fighting. If anything, it will have the opposite effect, strengthening Russian resolve and popular support for the war. Far from pushing for peace, Russia is likely to retaliate by escalating attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure or surging Russian forces along the line of contact.

What’s more, the Ukrainian operation weakens Kyiv’s position in ongoing negotiations to end the war. First, it plays into Vladimir Putin’s narrative that it is Kyiv, not Moscow, which is the instigator of the war and the impediment to peace. Second, it places at risk what remains of American support for Ukraine.

Coming on the eve of peace talks, Donald Trump — who was reportedly not warned ahead of time — is likely to see the attack as a direct violation of his demands that both sides find a way to end the war. Washington will be spooked by Ukraine’s willingness to target a piece of Russia’s nuclear triad without consultation, given the risks of nuclear escalation such a decision brings with it. Whether the Trump administration will impose consequences on Kyiv remains to be seen, but a cutoff of US military aid or intelligence sharing would further constrain Ukraine’s military on the eastern front, perhaps severely.

Ukraine’s leaders may hope that high-profile strikes on valuable Russian targets will galvanise its international supporters and prove it can still achieve a military victory. The reality, however, is that these operations divert valuable resources away from the defensive battle that Ukraine should be focused on in its own eastern regions. In the end, Kyiv’s daring attack on Russia’s bomber fleet may do more harm than help to Ukraine, costing it US military and intelligence support, strengthening Russia’s will to fight, and eroding its leverage at the bargaining table, even as its own military struggles to hold on along the front line. This is a high price for a fragile Ukraine to pay.

---

Jennifer Kavanagh is a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities.

jekavanagh

---