Having once been the party’s pet issue, Net Zero has become increasingly awkward for the Conservatives. It was Theresa May’s government which passed the laws enshrining it as a target for the UK, while Boris Johnson put it at the centre of his manifesto. With Reform UK on the rise, however, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has explicitly distanced herself and her party from the policy. Now, her former leadership opponent James Cleverly is challenging her on that stance, accusing Net Zero sceptics of being “neo-Luddites” and arguing that there needn’t be a choice between cutting emissions and boosting the economy. He may well be right.

There is certainly a strain on the British Right that opposes measures to combat climate change. However, these voters already have a full-throated option in Nigel Farage, who has made clear his opposition to Net Zero, enthusiasm for new oil and gas extraction, and antipathy towards solar panels and air pumps. The Tories will struggle to win over this group considering their record of championing environmentalism within government.

On the other hand, the Tories have plenty to lose. The majority of voters, including most Conservatives, are convinced of the reality of climate change and the need to take action. Net Zero itself enjoys widespread support (though voters are more sceptical when informed of its specific costs). Opposing the policy imposes a ceiling on a party’s support — which could prove especially costly if you are not winning over the more climate-sceptic voters anyway.

The Tories have particular reasons to be careful here. There has always been a conservationist tendency within the party and its supporters. It was this faction, embraced by the likes of Zac Goldsmith and David Cameron, which pushed the Tories to put decarbonisation at the centre of their message through 14 years in government. The Conservative turn against Net Zero has contributed to the loss of previously safe seats, such as Waveney and Hereford, to the Green Party. If this trend continues, it could hurt the Tories in the few remaining rural seats where they seem strong.

There is a greater challenge here, too. Both Net Zero and the wider push against climate change are now firmly established as mainstream opinions. Going against them puts you in opposition to a broad base of support. For Reform, an inherently iconoclastic party, this works. Nigel Farage’s base prides itself on rejecting establishment positions. For the Conservatives, it’s not clear that the same is true; indeed, the Tory route back to power rests on keeping and winning more moderate voters who don’t want to turn to Reform. The further they move from mainstream opinion in order to chase Farage, the harder this becomes.

This whole debate is an example of the bigger challenge facing the Conservative Party. It needs to win back votes from Reform, but it is unclear whether it can do that simply by copying the insurgent party’s policies. The message that “Reform is right, but trust us to do it” doesn’t cut through. Reform voters look at the Conservatives’ record and don’t trust them, while more moderate voters are put off by what they view as denial of climate reality.

Cleverly’s intervention goes beyond Net Zero. It is a challenge to the Conservatives to actually present an offering that differentiates them from Reform and takes the fight to Farage. The former home secretary’s idea of promoting a future-focused, enterprising approach to climate change could be a positive one. It could also be the start of the Tories offering new solutions, different from Labour’s, but which engage with the things most voters are worried about. Ultimately, it is about re-engaging with the idea of the centre-right: a politics that is at once Right-wing and open to the mainstream public.

Most of all, it is about realising that the Tories have to take the fight to Farage, as he does to them. The question is whether the party will find a way to do so, or continue to drive itself into irrelevance.

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John Oxley is a corporate strategist and political commentator. His Substack is Joxley Writes.

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